Voter Targeting Universe
A district-level scored Michigan voter file with universe assignments — GOTV-HIGH, GOTV-MED, PERSUASION, BASE, OPPOSE, LOW-PRIORITY — in VAN-importable CSV format. Built on the Michigan QVF and the turnout + partisan models I run. Available only to Michigan-registered political committees, party committees, and 501(c)(4) entities; eligibility is verified before any data is delivered.
Who can buy this
This product delivers voter-level records derived from the Michigan Qualified Voter File. The QVF has statutory and FOIA-acknowledgment-based use restrictions that flow through to any buyer. Eligibility is verified before engagement.
- Michigan-registered political committees, party committees, and 501(c)(4) entities.
- Active candidate committees and ballot-question committees.
- Coordinated and independent-expenditure committees as defined by Michigan campaign-finance law.
Not eligible: 501(c)(3) research nonprofits (incompatible with the political-committee scope), commercial list buyers, individual donors, or buyers outside Michigan. If you are a 501(c)(3) and need issue-specific tract-level analysis, see the Issue Report — aggregate-only, no voter-level records, no eligibility check.
Universe assignment
Each voter is assigned to one of six universes based on the combination of turnout propensity and partisan support. Thresholds are configurable per-race in the engagement.
| Universe | Logic | Action |
|---|---|---|
| GOTV-HIGH | High D support + low turnout | Mobilize — highest contact priority |
| GOTV-MED | Moderate D support + low turnout | Mobilize with persuasion messaging |
| PERSUASION | High turnout + moderate support | Persuade — they will vote, need convincing |
| BASE | High D support + high turnout | Low-touch — reliable supporters |
| OPPOSE | Low D support | Do not contact |
| LOW-PRIORITY | Very low turnout | Not worth resources |
Score definitions
- Turnout propensity — P(votes in the named primary). XGBoost classifier; AUC ~0.98 on held-out cross-validation. Top features: primary-participation ratio, permanent-AV status, total-elections count.
- Partisan lean — D/R lean using ecological inference from precinct results plus individual behavioral signals. Michigan does not have party registration; lean is estimated, not declared.
- Support score — campaign-specific support estimate. Defaults to partisan lean (no campaign engagement); upgrades to endorsement-proxy (FEC/MiTN donor overlap) or candidate-specific (trained on canvass results) when available.
- GOTV priority — composite score combining turnout propensity and support to rank GOTV contact order.
- Persuasion priority — composite score for persuasion targeting.
Deliverables
ZIP package containing 5 CSVs, README, methodology, and a signed manifest:
- van-targeting.csv — full district voter file with universe assignment, scores, and VAN-import-ready columns
- universe-counts.csv — county × universe aggregate counts
- gotv-priority-list.csv — high-priority GOTV subset for direct field deployment
- persuasion-priority-list.csv — high-priority persuasion subset
- voter-scores.csv — voter_id + scores (no PII; useful for joins)
- README.txt — engagement-specific notes (turnout target, model version, universe thresholds)
- methodology.md — universe definitions, score derivation, data sources
- manifest.json — cryptographic hash + delivery date for audit
Example output
A public-safe sample is available below. Names, addresses, and voter IDs are fabricated; geography, scores, and universe distribution are real — so the sample reflects actual deliverable shape and signal without exposing any real voter. The same redaction is applied across all five CSVs so a synthetic voter has the same fake identity in each file.
Download sample ZIPPricing
Price scales by office level of the named race or district.
| Office tier | Price |
|---|---|
| School board / township | $1,500 |
| City | $2,500 |
| County / judicial | $4,000 |
| Michigan House | $6,000 |
| Michigan Senate | $10,000 |
| Statewide / federal | $20,000 |
Restrictions
Voter-level records carry data-use restrictions per Michigan Election Law (MCL 168.522 and MCL 168.509q) and the FOIA acknowledgment we executed at receipt. The engagement letter §4 governs:
- 60-day deletion after general-election certification.
- No resale, transfer, or licensing of voter-level records to any third party — including affiliated committees, vendors, or coordinated campaigns — without our prior written consent.
- No commercial-solicitation use unrelated to the named race.
- No combining with sources that would enable surveillance, harassment, or targeting of individual voters.
- Audit right reserved: we may request a deletion attestation post-election.
The full terms are in §4 of the engagement letter you'll countersign before delivery.
Delivery timeline
- Standard: 14 business days from complete order + eligibility verification + countersigned engagement letter.
- Rush: 8 business days, +50% on base price.
- The clock starts after eligibility verification clears and the engagement letter is countersigned — not at order intake.
- Delivered as a download link to the ZIP package.
How to order
Email info@regionpulse.com with: race or district identifier, committee name + Michigan registration number, delivery email, and rush (yes/no). Eligibility verification follows; engagement letter + Stripe invoice are sent after eligibility clears.
info@regionpulse.com