Election Intelligence

District Intelligence Brief

A full strategic picture of any Michigan legislative district. Turnout modeling, targeting universes, precinct-level election history, demographic and issue overlays, and competitive context, joined to the Michigan voter file at the precinct level.

Methodology

How I build it

Every brief is generated from the Michigan Qualified Voter File joined to precinct boundaries, district history, and demographic layers. Modeling is transparent and the outputs are reproducible. No opinions, no black boxes.

Data sources

  • Michigan Qualified Voter File with full vote history
  • Precinct boundaries and MICRC district shapefiles
  • Precinct-level election results (2018, 2020, 2022, 2024)
  • Census ACS demographic tables at the tract and block-group level
  • Bureau of Elections candidate filings
  • MiTN and FEC campaign finance records
  • Issue overlay layers (eviction rate, environmental burden, energy cost, food access)

Analytical methods

  • Turnout propensity modeling trained on statewide voter history
  • Partisan lean estimation (Michigan has no party registration)
  • Universe assignment: GOTV, persuasion, base, and oppose
  • Historical results remapped to current district boundaries
  • Spatial joins for demographic and issue overlay analysis

Validation

Turnout model predictions are validated against past election results. Universe assignments are reproducible from the same voter history inputs. Every finding cites the underlying data record.

Turnaround and format

Typical deliverable is 10 to 16 pages, PDF format, with cover page and full source appendix. Turnaround depends on whether voter data infrastructure is already built for the district:

  • Districts with existing voter models: 5 to 7 business days
  • New districts requiring model setup: 10 to 14 business days
What's in the deliverable

Contents

A District Intelligence Brief includes the following sections (10 to 16 pages):

  • Cover page: district name, race type, election date, confidentiality mark
  • Executive summary: overall assessment, 5-6 key findings with specific numbers, strategic recommendation
  • District profile: county breakdown with voter counts, shares, and partisan lean
  • Demographic snapshot: community cluster analysis from Census ACS tract data (income, education, race, environmental justice, housing)
  • Precinct-level election history: top mobilization targets with D share, turnout, and gap analysis. Base erosion tracking.
  • Turnout model output: XGBoost model with 87 features and full universe breakdown (GOTV-HIGH, GOTV-MED, PERSUASION, BASE, OPPOSE, LOW-PRIORITY)
  • GOTV distribution by county: where the mobilization targets live
  • Candidate field: each candidate with FEC totals, in-district donor share, out-of-state percentage, key strength, and key vulnerability
  • Campaign finance context: aggregate comparison table across all candidates
  • Issue overlays: issues ranked by four independent sources (voter search interest, media coverage, candidate focus, ground conditions) with community-level message targeting
  • Intelligence gaps: known unknowns with expected resolution dates
  • Methodology: model specs, data sources, validation results
  • Source appendix: every data source with retrieval dates
Sample

Example output

Sample screenshots and a downloadable fake-data sample PDF will be published here. All sample content uses fabricated district and candidate names. No real districts or individuals will appear in any published sample.

Sample PDF and screenshots coming soon.

Pricing

By office tier

Same template, same deliverable, different price based on the office. The work is the same. Pricing reflects the norms of the race tier.

  • Federal (US Senate, US House): $20,000 to $30,000
  • Statewide (Governor, AG, SoS): $18,000 to $25,000
  • Michigan Senate:$10,000 to $15,000
  • Michigan House:$5,000 to $8,000
  • County (prosecutor, sheriff, commission): $3,000 to $5,000
  • Local (mayor, council, school board): $2,000 to $4,000
  • Ballot committee:$15,000 to $25,000

Engagement-based pricing. Fixed scope. No retainers, no hidden fees.

Start an engagement

Ready to commission a brief?

Email with the race or district and any priority issues. I'll respond within one business day with scope and timeline.

info@regionpulse.com