Ballot Measure Brief

Methodology

How I build it

Every brief is generated from public-record sources joined to the Michigan voter file at the precinct level. Modeling is transparent and the outputs are reproducible. Sections that aren't applicable to a measure type ship as documented null findings, not silent fallbacks.

Data sources

Michigan Qualified Voter File and precinct boundaries
Bureau of Elections committee records (MERTS) for ballot question committees
Census ACS tract demographics joined to precinct geography
Prior Michigan ballot proposal results from the elections-results archive
State and local fiscal-impact data (millage rates, levy reports)
SOS / county clerk ballot-text and certification records

Analytical methods

Two-sided donor analysis: yes-committee and no-committee side-by-side
Comparable-measure selection by type, jurisdiction, and fiscal impact
Tract-level base / persuasion universe rollup
Per-precinct fiscal-burden allocation with stress-tract overlay (millages and bonds)
Spatial joins for demographic and fiscal-burden geography

Documented null findings

Common cases the brief handles explicitly rather than skipping or hiding:

No-committee not registered (common on uncontested local millages)
Fiscal-impact section null (charter amendments, non-fiscal proposals)
Comparable-measure pool too thin (fewer than three suitable priors)

Deliverable format

Typical deliverable is 8 to 12 pages, PDF format, with cover page, measure summary, coalition tables, and full source appendix. Delivery package includes the PDF, plain text copy, and structured data files (CSV).

What's in the deliverable

Cover page: measure name, jurisdiction, election date, confidentiality mark
Key facts: top findings as factual bullet points with specific numbers
Measure summary: ballot text, jurisdiction, fiscal impact, both registered ballot question committees, election context
Coalition map: yes-committee and no-committee side-by-side -- top donors, donor type breakdown (individual / PAC / corporate / nonprofit / out-of-state), parent-organization roll-up, regional concentration
Electoral geography: turnout estimate by precinct for the relevant election, similar prior-measure outcomes by precinct or tract
Base and persuasion universe: tract-level rollup -- yes-base, no-base, persuasion tracts by share of the universe (no per-voter records)
Comparable measures: prior similar Michigan measures with outcomes and demographic context, or a documented thin-pool advisory
Fiscal-impact overlay: per-tract tax burden in dollars cross-cut against affordability-stress tracts (millages and bonds only; null finding for non-fiscal measures)
Methodology: turnout model, comparable-measure selection rule, tract-level computation method
Source appendix: every database queried with retrieval dates

Data files included

Every delivery package includes structured data files alongside the PDF:

Per-tract universe rollup CSV (yes-base, no-base, persuasion, low-info)
Two-sided donor comparison CSV (yes vs no, with type, geography, totals)
Comparable-measures CSV (prior measure id, jurisdiction, type, yes / no votes, outcome)
Per-precinct fiscal-burden CSV (for millages and bonds)
Plain text report for copy-paste

Fit check

Who this is not for

The Ballot Measure Brief is a fixed-scope analytical product built on Michigan public records. It is not the right product for:

Measures outside Michigan. The brief is built on the Michigan QVF, MERTS committee data, and Michigan precinct geography. No other state is supported.
Per-voter scoring on a measure. The brief is aggregate analysis at tract resolution. Voter-level scoring on a ballot measure is not currently a published product.
Polling, message testing, or focus-group data. Outcome prediction requires polling we don't do.
Recommended message frames or ad copy. The brief surfaces the data; you decide how to use it.
Coordination with any committee on strategy or spending.

Sample

Example output

The sample uses a fabricated Michigan millage (Lansing Public Library Millage as described in the sample is not a real measure on the August 2026 ballot). All section structure, citation formats, and analytical depth are identical to production deliverables. Tract-level demographic numbers reflect real Census ACS data and are illustrative for sample purposes.

Download sample PDF

Pricing

Tiered by the jurisdiction the measure is voted on. School and township measures sit at the lowest tier; statewide ballot proposals at the highest. Same fixed-scope, fixed-price model as our other briefs.

Measure jurisdiction	Ballot Measure Brief
School district / township (school millage, township operating millage)	$500
City (charter, operating millage, public-safety millage, bond)	$750
County (millage, charter, single-county authority)	$1,500
Small regional (DDA, intra-county special district)	$2,500
Multi-county regional (transit, water authority, regional parks)	$4,000
Statewide ballot proposal (constitutional amendment, statewide initiative or referendum)	$7,500

Fixed scope, fixed price. No retainers, no hourly billing, no hidden fees. Verified 501(c)(3) research orgs receive 25% off; ballot question committees with total reported budget under $100,000 receive 30% off (discounts compose).

Turnaround

Delivery timeline

Standard: 5 business days from complete order.
Rush: 2 business days, +50% on base price.
Clock starts when the order form is complete and payment clears.
Delivered as a download link (PDF, plain-text copy, CSV data) to the email on the order.

Order

How to order

Email info@regionpulse.com with: measure identifier (e.g., "Lansing Public Library Millage, August 2026 primary"), jurisdiction tier, delivery email, and rush (yes/no). I'll send a Stripe invoice on receipt. Production starts when payment clears.

info@regionpulse.com